Pemberton native Ed Gillespie tied in Virginia's gubernatorial race

Geronimo Vena
Luglio 25, 2017

In the first poll published since Saturday's Virginia Gubernatorial Debate, Monmouth University Poll has a tied race between Republican Ed Gillespie and Democrat Ralph Northam. Libertarian candidate Cliff Hyra garnered 3 percent, while 9 percent of respondents were undecided.

Forty-four percent of likely voters favor Republican Ed Gillespie and the same number - 44 percent - say they support Democrat Ralph Northam, according to a news release from the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, N.J., which conducted the poll.

Among independent voters, 42 percent say they support Gillespie over 38 percent for Northam.

The telephone survey was taken between July 20 and July 23. "Unless one of the candidates breaks out with a clear advantage on Virginia-centric issues, the president could wind up as a decisive factor in the outcome", said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

As for the substance, this one's surprising to me, as nearly all the previous polls in recent months have had Ralph Northam up significantly (e.g., 11 points in an April Quinnipiac Poll; 11 points in the May Washington Post poll; 8 points in the June Quinnipiac Poll).

Ninety-nine percent of Gillespie voters would still stick with him if Trump wasn't a factor.

Notably, four in 10 voters - or 40 percent - said Trump was a factor in their voting. Somewhat fewer Northam voters (88%) say they would stay with the Democrat, with numerous potential defectors (7%) moving into the undecided column.

More than half of respondents said they approve of the job that McAuliffe is doing and 51 percent say that the commonwealth is going in the right direction (only 31 percent say the country as a whole is heading the right way).

Health care is the top issue for Virginia voters.

Breaking the votes down by demographics, fifty percent of women preferred Northam in comparison with 37 percent for Gillespie, non-white voters preferred Northam by 69 percent in comparison to Gillespie's 18 percent, and people between 18 and 49 also preferred Northam by 50 percent to Gillespie's 39 percent.

Gillespie leads in the central region, 43 percent to 41 percent for Northam. The poll also found a stark racial gap: Northam had a 50-point lead among nonwhite voters while Gillespie led white voters 52 percent to Northam's 36 percent.

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