Caribbean's Windward Islands under tropical storm warning

Bruno Cirelli
Giugno 20, 2017

We continue to watch two areas of interest in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and in the Atlantic. A Tropical Storm Warning is issued in the Windward Islands of Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada on Sunday night.

If the system remains disorganized, it could have a broad wind field and dump excessive rains all along the Gulf.

The National Hurricane Center says there is a high chance the tropical wave now located over the western Caribbean Sea develops into a tropical cyclone early next week. This is why we are uncertain at this time whether the system in the Gulf would be Bret or Cindy. Wind speeds determine whether the system is a tropical depression, storm or hurricane.

The system may take shape over the central Gulf of Mexico and be pulled northward to the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana.

Over the early part of the work week, this developing storm is expected to move north of South America and slide across Caribbean islands south of Barbados. This one has the better chance of impacting the Gulf Coast and eventually the Carolinas. It is still too early to say with any certainty, whether there would be any impacts on land.

"Before the storm develops, it's pretty hard to determine where the system will move", said Nikki Hathaway, meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Houston-Galveston office. Regardless of the exact track, heavy rain appears to be the biggest forecast issue as wind shear will greatly limit the storms ability to gain any significant strength with regard the wind speeds.

The first scenario would decrease rain chances in the area while the second scenario would most likely bring more rain.

This could mean tide levels above normal that would create a flood threat for areas outside the levee system.

There is high confidence in the development of this low into a tropical system, but the confidence level is much lower in regards to the movement. It is now producing 40 miles per hour sustained winds as it moves west at 23 miles per hour.

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